The country’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets broke consecutive records throughout 2021 as Canadians’ urgent, pandemic-influenced demand for housing mobility and strengthening confidence in the country’s economic recovery drove price gains, eroded inventory and propelled markets to historic highs.

Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate markets are undergoing an unprecedented phase of evolution and expansion, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. One year following the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic, the compounding effects of dramatic changes in the housing preferences of affluent Canadians, new demands across multiple generations of homeowners and buyers, significant cash accumulation, easy access to borrowing, and pent-up local and international demand, are rippling across the market. With sales activity and price gains accelerating across major cities across the country as a result, strong performance is projected this spring.

According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s 2019 Year-End Top-Tier Real Estate Report, Canada’s two largest top-tier metropolitan real estate markets rallied in 2019, gaining steady traction throughout the year. After a tentative start to 2019, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) led the country in top-tier real estate performance with consistent and confident increases in sales activity and pricing, bolstered by the region’s strong population gains, healthy economic growth and robust labour market. Vancouver overcame several years of uncertainty fostered by ongoing government and regulatory interventions to see revitalized confidence and activity in the $1 million-plus real estate market by the last half of 2019. Montreal’s luxury real estate market achieved notable milestones in its condominium sector in 2019, and the city set new records in top-tier market performance. Despite improvements in the market for real estate under $500,000, Calgary’s uneven economic performance and political turbulence dampened a top-tier market already burdened with supply; as a result, recovery continued to lag.

2019 Top-Tier Fall Market Forcast | Emboldened consumer confidence and solid economic fundamentals in Canada’s largest housing market position the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to lead Canadian top-tier real estate performance this fall. New data compiled by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada reveal that GTA residential real estate sales over $1 million saw bold gains over the summer months, increasing 29% year-over-year in July and August. Significant increases were experienced across every housing type as condominium, attached and single family home sales over $1 million rose 13%, 45% and 29% from 2018 levels respectively. Preliminary sales figures for the first fifteen days of September also suggest robust fall activity ahead, as overall $1 million-plus sales surged 53% year-over-year, while sales over $4 million rose 75%.

2019 Top-Tier Spring Outlook | Population growth and revitalized consumer confidence in the country’s largest real estate market is expected to drive Canadian top-tier real estate performance in spring 2019. New data compiled by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada reveal that Greater Toronto Area top-tier sales have stabilized from previous years’ unpredictability, with sales over $1 million down a nominal 2% year-over-year in the first two months of 2019. A shortfall in inventory over $4 million, as well as a shift of luxury real estate transactions to off-market and private channels resulted in a 38% decrease in MLS® sales compared to the first two months of 2018; however, demand for luxury housing remains robust leading into spring. While buyers’ market conditions remain entrenched in Vancouver as the city started the year with 52% and 50% declines in sales over $1 million and $4 million respectively, pent-up demand and a positive shift in market confidence are palpable.

According to a report released today by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, Eastern Canada’s major metropolitan areas led the nation in top-tier real estate performance in 2018, as Western Canadian markets buckled under pressure from local stressors ranging from taxation and regulatory interventions in Vancouver, to strained economic conditions in Calgary. Buoyed by population gains and steady economies, sales over $1 million in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) strengthened over the course of 2018, while Montreal’s luxury real estate market posted new records. Vancouver and Calgary’s top-tier real estate markets retreated further into buyers’ market territory, as excess supply overtook consumer demand. Across the country, markets continued to face headwinds of rising interest rates and tightened mortgage guidelines.

In the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York), market confidence and top-tier sales activity renewed in the first half of 2018 as consumer psychology recovered from the April 2017 introduction of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, particularly within the City of Toronto. Given unprecedented gains in the region’s $1 million-plus sales volume from 2015 to 2017, with surges of 56% in 2015 over 2014, 65% in 2016 over 2015, and 41% in the first half of 2017 over the first half of 2016, year-over-year comparisons of 2018 to 2017 sales activity mask the region’s market resilience. On the surface, $1 million-plus residential real estate sales fell 46% year-over-year in the first half of 2018, while sales over $4 million fell 51%. However, 2018 sales volume trended in line with 2015’s pre-surge levels: GTA $1 million-plus real estate sales in the first half of 2018 increased 25% from the number of units sold in the first half of 2015, while sales over $4 million were up 72%.